St John’s Antigua, July 2, 2025. The Statistics Division, under the Ministry of Finance and Corporate Governance releases the CPI for March 2025.
Year-on-Year Analysis
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 4.3% over the twelve months ending March 2025. Inflation during the first quarter of 2025 rose at a slower rate compared to the same period in 2024, reflecting a continued stabilization in prices following the economic impact of COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
The Food Index rose by 0.4% over the year, with mixed movements across categories. The Fruit Index increased by 5.0%, driven by a 23.9% rise in Frozen, Preserved, or Processed Fruit and Fruit-based products. Bread and Cereals rose 3.7%, Meat and Meat Products (+3.2%), Food products Not Elsewhere Classified (NEC) (+2.7%), and Sugars, Jams, Honey, Chocolate, and Confectionery (+2.6%).In contrast, Oils and Fats declined by 10.8%, with average prices falling for I Can’t Believe It’s Butter ($22.76 to $16.77), Peanut Butter ($16.06 to $15.07), Soya oil ($9.78 to $8.16), and Olive Oil ($40.35 to $39.44). The Fish and Seafood Index also declined, with Frozen Fish prices falling from $22.80 to $16.57, Canned Tuna in water from $5.41 to $4.64, and Canned Tuna in Oil from $5.16 to $4.45.
Core inflation, measured by the index for All Items Less Food and Energy, rose by 4.8%. The main contributors were increases in Miscellaneous Goods and Services and Restaurants and Hotels both recorded increases over 14.0%, followed by Health (+10.5%), Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco and Narcotics (+8.4%), and Actual Rentals for Housing (+6.3%).
Month-to-Month Price Changes
In March 2025, the Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined by 1.6% compared to February 2025, driven primarily by a decrease in the Transport Index (-11.0). The Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages Index also fell by 0.5%, as both its components declined.
The Food Index dropped 0.5%, with prices decreasing in six of the nine major supermarket food groups. Notably, the Fish and Seafood Index declined 3.1%, reflecting lower prices for Frozen Fish ($19.21 to $16.57) and Sardines in Water ($4.71 to $4.62). The Oils and Fats Index fell 2.7%, with reductions in the prices of I Can’t Believe It’s Butter ($18.72 to $16.77) and Peanut Butter ($16.08 to $15.07). Further declines were recorded in Milk, Cheese and Eggs (-1.9%) and Bread and Cereals (-1.3%).In contrast, prices rose for Food Products NEC (+3.5%) and Sugars, Jam, Honey, Chocolate, and Confectionery (+1.7%). The Non-Alcoholic Beverages Index declined 0.5%, with three of its four subcategories recording decreases.
The All Items Less Food and Energy Index fell 2.0%, mainly due to lower airline fares and a reduction in the Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco, and Narcotics Index.
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Methodology
What is the consumer price index (CPI) measuring and how is it done?
The All Items Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the main measure of what is commonly called inflation, or headline inflation. It measures the change in prices, on average, from month to month, and from year to year of the goods and services bought by most households.
Prices are collected monthly and quarterly from supermarkets and other suppliers of goods and services. The pattern of household expenditure on these goods and services is derived from a regular household budget (or expenditure) survey (HBS). The prices and spending patterns (known as weights) are then combined to calculate the price indices for groups of goods and services and for the All Items index. These indices are based on expenditure patterns in 2006.
The All Items (or overall) index, with all of its twelve (12) component indices, is published each month. For a detailed account of the methodology used in calculating the CPI, please call the Statistics Division.
Copies of the CPI for Mar 2025 can be accessed on the Division's official website www.statistics.gov.ag
March 2025 Monthly CPI Publication: