St John’s Antigua, November 15, 2023. The Statistics Division, under the Ministry of Finance and Corporate Governance releases the CPI for Sep 2023.
Year-on-Year Analysis
The Inflation rate or the All Items Index for the twelve months ending September 2023 rose 5.6%. The increase was influenced predominately by increases in the indexes for Communication (+13.1%), Transport (+7.5%), and Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages (+4.5%).
The index for Food increased 4.5% over the last twelve months. The index for Bread and Cereals rose by 8.2% and accounted for almost 30% of the food increase. The increase in Bread and Cereals was primarily due to increases in the indexes for for Other Cereals, Flour, and Other Products (+19.4%) and Other Bakery Products(+ 8.7%). The index for Other Cereals, Flour and Other Products, and Other Bakery Products accounted for 91% of the Bread and Cereal index increase.
The index for Vegetables rose 4.3% with the index for Frozen Preserved or Processed Vegetables and Vegetable-based Products rising 9.0%.
The index for Meat and Meat Products declined 5.0%. Five of the six Meat and Meat Products subcategories declined except for the Pork index which increased 13.4%. The remaining subcategories’ declines range from Delicatessen and Other Meat Preparations (-2.6%) to Lamb, Mutton and Goat (-13.5% ).
The index for All Items Less Food and Energy index rose 6.9% over the past twelve months. The four influential contributors to the All Items Less Food and Energy increase are the indexes for Communication (+13.1%), Restaurants and Hotels (+14.4%), Miscellaneous Goods and services (5.3%) and Furnishing Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance (+5.2%).
Month-to-Month Price Changes
The Monthly Consumer Price Index declined by 0.9% for the month ending September 2023.
The index for Food increased by 2.5% over the last month. Six of nine food sub-categories posted increases over the one month. Notable increases were Fruits (+12.0%), Vegetables (+6.0%) Fish and Seafood (+3.0%), and Sugar Jam Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery (+2.1%). The remaining indexes ranged from Oil and Fats (+0.3%) to Bread and Cereals (+1.3%).
In contrast, the index for Meat and Meat Products declined by 1.9%. This follows a 1.2% decline in the previous month. The index for Milk, Cheese and Eggs remained unchanged.
The index for Non-Alcoholic Beverages rose 1.4% in September after a 0.5% increase in the previous month. The increase was attributed to increases in the index for Mineral Water (+2.5%) and Coffee, Tea and Cocoa (+ 6.0%).
The index for All Items Less Food and Energy fell by 1.8% in September. The decline was largely attributed to the 14.3% decline in index Transport Services.
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Methodology
What is the consumer price index (CPI) measuring and how is it done?
The All Items Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the main measure of what is commonly called inflation, or headline inflation. It measures the change in prices, on average, from month to month, and from year to year of the goods and services bought by most households.
Prices are collected monthly and quarterly from supermarkets and other suppliers of goods and services. The pattern of household expenditure on these goods and services is derived from a regular household budget (or expenditure) survey (HBS). The prices and spending patterns (known as weights) are then combined to calculate the price indices for groups of goods and services and for the All Items index. These indices are based on expenditure patterns in 2006.
The All Items (or overall) index, with all of its twelve (12) component indices, is published each month. For a detailed account of the methodology used in calculating the CPI, please call the Statistics Division.
Copies of this and previous CPI publications can be accessed in the analysis section of the Consumer Price Index Subjects page.
September 2023 Monthly CPI Publication: